Annual Threat Assessment 2015
04. FEB 2015 PST Nasjonal trusselvurdering
The threat situation in Norway is characterised by both continuity and change. Although we have not witnessed any dramatic events in Norway over the past year, developments are markedly negative. This relates to changes in the threat situation linked to different forms of extremism as well as to activities by the intelligence services of foreign states.
It is difficult to determine the extent of extremism in society and there are many sources of error. There is substantial uncertainty around the actual intention of all individuals who express themselves. Extremism refers to a person's desire to use violence. This entails an internal conviction, which is more or less hidden from others. It is not the case that all extremists express themselves, or that all who express themselves are extremists. We also know that individuals who are heading into an extremist environment can change course, and that the process of radicalisation can be stopped.
Several terrorist groups encourage their sympathisers to carry out acts of violence, often through the use of simple means. The effect that propaganda and incitement to violence can have on vulnerable individuals is generally difficult to assess. Acts of violence carried out by individuals or small groups may happen spontaneously or with minimal preparation. In such situations one cannot count on any advance warning, and traditional civil protection measures will have little or no effect.
Nor do comprehensive and serious changes in geopolitics and security necessarily lend themselves to advance warning. No one managed to predict Russia's occupation of Crimea and the resulting geopolitical and security consequences. The sudden military progress of ISIL in Iraq was not foreseen or warned about in advance either.
Both of the above examples have an impact on the threat picture, and demonstrate that events abroad may have both direct and indirect consequences for developments here at home and for Norwegian interests abroad. They also show that the unpredictability in the threat picture is substantial, nationally and internationally, and that we must be prepared for the unexpected.
The Norwegian Police Security Service's (PST's) main task is to prevent and investigate threats. What we can all do something about, is to try to prevent young people from being lured into thinking that violence is necessary to solve social problems.
The Annual Threat Assessment is an assessment of expected developments within PST's areas of responsibility in the year ahead. The target audience for the Threat Assessment is the Norwegian public who would like public information about expected trends in the threat picture. The assessment is also intended for entities which require an updated threat assessment as part of their long-term risk management. The value of the assessment is therefore dependent on the user's knowledge of risk management and the desire to limit one's vulnerability. In developing the assessment, PST has collaborated with several other authorities, of which the Norwegian Intelligence Service and the Norwegian National Security Authority are the most important. The contents of the assessment have therefore been aligned within the subject areas for which the services have adjoining areas of responsibility.